The Scorecard
On Sunday I published The Mega-Week Docket — ten events in four days. Here is what happened.
Approved
AXS-05 — AXSM
Auvelity approved for Alzheimer’s disease agitation. Second FDA-approved treatment for AD agitation ever. Four Phase 3 trials. Priority Review. Breakthrough Therapy. The data was never in question — 3.6× lower relapse risk (HR 0.275, p=.014). Up to 76% of AD patients experience agitation. This was clean.
Massive Beat
Eli Lilly Q1 — LLY
EPS $8.55 adj vs $6.66 est (+28%). Revenue $19.8B vs $17.6B est (+56% YoY). Raised FY guidance: $82–85B revenue, $35.50–37.00 EPS. Stock +6%. Foundayo had $0 in Q1 — launched Apr 6, too late to book — so this is pure Mounjaro/Zepbound momentum. The oral GLP-1 upside hasn’t even started yet.
Voted Against — 6-3
Camizestrant ODAC — AZN
First ODAC in 9 months. First post-Pazdur oncology panel. A 6–3 majority found insufficient clinically meaningful benefit for switching to camizestrant upon ESR1 mutation detection during first-line AI + CDK4/6 inhibition. SERENA-6 showed 56% PFS improvement, but PFS2 and OS were immature. The committee wanted more.
ODAC PM Session
Capivasertib/Truqap — AZN
sNDA for PTEN-deficient mHSPC. CAPItello-281 showed modest rPFS benefit (HR 0.81) with 19% risk reduction but 67% grade ≥3 AEs vs 40%. OS immature (HR 0.90, p=.401). CAPItello-280 (mCRPC) halted for futility. Polymarket priced approval odds at 13.6%. The committee faced a narrow benefit-risk question with weak supporting evidence.
The Macro Print
The 8:30 AM data drop delivered a stagflation signal buried inside a superficially fine GDP number.
2.0%
Q1 GDP annualized
vs 2.2% consensus
3.2%
Core PCE YoY
+0.3% MoM, hotter
3.5%
Headline PCE YoY
+0.7% MoM
GDP accelerated from Q4’s anemic 0.5% to 2.0%, but missed the 2.2% consensus. The real story is prices. Core PCE at 3.2% YoY — the Fed’s preferred gauge — is running well above the 2% target. Headline at 3.5% reflects the Hormuz energy premium flowing through the economy. Powell acknowledged exactly this yesterday: “inflation elevated, in part reflecting recent increase in global energy prices.”
Below-consensus growth plus above-target inflation is the textbook stagflation setup. The FOMC held at 3.5–3.75% with 8–4 dissent — four votes fractured across three directions (Miran wanted a cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed the easing bias). There is no consensus at the Fed on what comes next.
The Fed Succession
This week’s most consequential outcome wasn’t a drug approval or an earnings beat. It was Powell’s announcement that he will step down as Chair on May 15 but remain on the Board of Governors. “They left me no choice,” he said, citing “unprecedented legal attacks” on Fed independence.
Warsh advanced from the Banking Committee on a 13–11 party-line vote — the first fully partisan Fed Chair committee vote in history. Full Senate confirmation expected by May 11. When he takes the gavel, Powell will be sitting at the same table as a fellow Governor, casting votes on rate decisions made by the man who replaced him.
There is no precedent for this. The dual-power dynamic begins in two weeks.
Oil Spiked $126
Brent touched $126.41 intraday — the highest since the war began — before settling around $111. WTI traded near $106. The UAE exit from OPEC becomes effective tomorrow. The cartel’s third-largest producer, freed from quota constraints, enters a market where Hormuz is still functionally closed and Iran’s storage is 12–22 days from capacity.
The S&P closed at 7,200 (+0.9%). A new record. Oil at $126. Inflation at 3.5%. The market is telling you it can absorb all of this. Or it’s telling you it hasn’t finished pricing it.
What’s left from the docket: Chevron Q1 reports tomorrow morning. War Powers Day 60 passes at midnight. UAE OPEC exit becomes effective. Three more binary moments before the week is done.
Next PDUFA: Vyvgart sBLA (ARGX) — May 10. Next earnings for ChrysosAI positions: AMD Q1 — May 5.