Four Days. Seven Decisions.
The week of April 28 is the most catalyst-dense window since the war began. Seven binary events compressed into four trading days, each with a precise timestamp. Here is the docket.
Backdrop
Rubio formally rejected Iran's decoupling proposal today: "We cannot normalize a system in which the Iranians decide who gets to use an international waterway." Putin pledged to do "everything" for Iran after meeting Araghchi in St. Petersburg — with Russia's military intelligence chief in the room. The diplomatic track is dead. Blockade continues. 38 ships redirected. Brent $107. WTI $96.68. S&P at a record 7,173.
The Docket
| When | Event | What’s At Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 28 All day |
FOMC Day 1 | Meeting begins. No statement today, but markets know what’s coming — 99.7% hold. The question isn’t the rate. It’s whether Powell acknowledges supply-side inflation from Hormuz in the statement language. |
| Tue Apr 28 All day |
USTR Section 301 hearings | Trade hearings begin. Semiconductors in the crosshairs May 5–8. Today sets the tone for tariff escalation trajectory. |
| Wed Apr 29 10:00 AM ET |
Warsh Committee Vote Senate Banking, Dirksen 538 |
13R–11D. Party-line advance expected after Tillis dropped his blockade Saturday. If it passes, full Senate confirmation before Powell’s May 15 term expiry. The Fed Chair transition becomes real four hours before the current Chair speaks. |
| Wed Apr 29 2:00 PM ET |
FOMC Decision | Hold. But the statement language is the signal. Does the Fed name the strait? JPMorgan sees no cuts in 2026 and a possible hike in Q3 2027. This is the last Powell statement before Warsh takes over. |
| Wed Apr 29 2:30 PM ET |
Powell Presser | His last press conference as Chair. War Powers Day 60. The Senate voted to block his removal five times and lost. Now his replacement is being voted on the same morning. |
| Thu Apr 30 BMO |
Eli Lilly Q1 Earnings $LLY |
EPS est. $7.52–7.55 (up 125% YoY). Rev $17.6B. First full quarter with Foundayo on the market. Options imply ±6.16%. The question: how fast is the GLP-1 ramp under supply-chain stress? |
| Thu Apr 30 8 AM–5 PM ET |
Dual ODAC $AZN × 2 |
AM: Camizestrant — oral SERD for HR+/HER2– breast cancer with ESR1 mutation. First FDA cancer advisory panel in 9 months. PM: Truqap (capivasertib) sNDA — combo with abiraterone for PTEN-deficient mHSPC. Both AstraZeneca. Both binary. |
| Thu Apr 30 PDUFA |
AXS-05 sNDA Decision $AXSM |
Auvelity label expansion for Alzheimer’s disease agitation. Priority Review. Four Phase 3 trials. If approved, first treatment specifically indicated for AD agitation. No early action signals as of T–2. |
| Fri May 1 BMO |
Chevron Q1 Earnings $CVX |
Pre-warned $2.7–3.7B negative timing effects from Hormuz. Stock at $183, below the $187 floor where insiders were selling. Post-blackout window opens May 3 — if they buy, the blockade pricing is structural. If they don’t, it was a blip. |
| Fri May 1 | War Powers Formal Deadline | 60 days from the March 2 war notification. Constitutional clock runs out. The Senate blocked resolutions to invoke War Powers five times. Congress chose to look away. Now the deadline passes without consequence — but the precedent is permanent. |
The Collision
Wednesday is the day that doesn’t have room for all of itself. At 10 AM, the Senate Banking Committee votes to advance the man who will replace the Fed Chair. At 2 PM, the Fed Chair delivers his last rate decision. At 2:30, he takes questions for the last time. War Powers Day 60 ticks over in the background.
Thursday is worse. Before the bell, Lilly reports the first full Foundayo quarter — the GLP-1 number that sets the sector. Then the FDA convenes its first cancer advisory panel in nine months to review two AstraZeneca drugs back-to-back. And somewhere in the same 24-hour window, the FDA decides whether Auvelity gets to treat Alzheimer’s agitation.
Friday closes it out with Chevron reporting into a blockade that’s still running, and a constitutional deadline that no one will enforce.
Ten events. Four days. The market is priced at an all-time high with oil above $100 and the diplomatic track officially dead. Every one of these is a before-and-after moment. Most weeks give you one. This week gives you ten.