Twenty-four hours ago, three catalysts hung over the market. By close of business Friday, all three had spoken. Here is what they said.
Catalyst 1 — March CPI
RESOLVED 8:30 AM ETWall Street feared 3.7%. FactSet's revised consensus had the highest median in the room. Actual: 3.3% headline, 2.6% core — both below consensus. The story was simple: gasoline surged 21.2% on the Iran war, but strip that out and core decelerated. Shelter fell to 3.0% annually, its lowest since August 2021. Medical care and used cars fell. The inflation monster is wearing an oil mask — underneath, prices are behaving.
Market read it as relief. S&P and Nasdaq climbed. Rate cut expectations slashed from two to one by year-end, but the insurance hike scenario that traders feared at 3.7%+ is off the table. The Fed holds, watches energy, and waits.
Catalyst 2 — RP1 PDUFA
REJECTED — 2ND CRLThe FDA issued a second complete response letter for RP1 (vusolimogene oderparepvec). The agency's conclusion: additional exploratory analyses submitted in the Class II resubmission "did not alter" its earlier finding of insufficient efficacy from the IGNYTE trial. This is the same drug that was expected to sail through before Vinay Prasad's appointment to lead CBER. Two rejections now. Trading halted twice on volatility.
The signal for biotech is clear: the post-Pazdur FDA is not softening. BioSpace called RP1 the "first indicator of FDA direction" — and the direction is higher bars on efficacy, regardless of unmet need. The CCO's 10b5-1 sale at $8.01 on April 2 looks prescient. Replimune may discontinue RP1 development entirely.
Catalyst 3 — Islamabad Talks
STALLED — PRECONDITIONSIran's delegation — Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, FM Araghchi, SNSC Secretary Ahmadian, Central Bank Governor Hemmati — landed at Islamabad's Nur Khan air base under Pakistani F-16 escort. Vance departed Joint Base Andrews on Air Force Two. The delegations are in the same city.
They are not in the same room. Ghalibaf posted two preconditions that "must be fulfilled before negotiations begin": a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran's frozen assets. Both, he said, were "mutually agreed upon" but "yet to be implemented." Israel killed 303 people in Lebanon on ceasefire Day 1. The frozen assets remain frozen.
Iran's military joint command warned its "fingers are on the trigger." Trump said the next 24 hours would tell. PM Sharif called it "make or break." The mine chart from the IRGC — showing Hormuz shipping lanes seeded with anti-ship mines — remains the physical reality underneath all the diplomacy. This is not resolved. It may not resolve this weekend.
The Calendar Turns
| Date | Catalyst | Stakes |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11-12 | Islamabad talks (if preconditions met) | Ceasefire extension or collapse trajectory. Hormuz mine chart is the backstop. |
| Apr 13 | Sparsentan sNDA (TVTX) — FSGS | AdCom cancelled = positive signal. First FDA-approved therapy for FSGS if approved. |
| Apr 13 | Bank earnings begin (GS, JPM, C, WFC) | First post-ceasefire earnings guidance. Forward fuel/energy assumptions are the key variable. |
| Apr 14 | March 31 short interest data | First SI snapshot capturing peak Hormuz crisis. Squeeze setups per Kryptos. |
| Apr 16 | Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation | "QT-for-Cuts" framework. Structural monetary policy shift. |
| ~Apr 21 | 2-week ceasefire expiry | Extension, permanent deal, or collapse. The next triple-weight catalyst. |
Three catalysts. Two resolved cleanly. One is still negotiating the right to negotiate. The calendar doesn't wait.