Since You Last Checked
Three catalysts resolved in the past week. All three moved fast.
Markets agree: S&P closed at 7,398.93 on Friday — a new all-time high. Six straight winning weeks. NFP +115K doubled consensus. Oil eased to WTI ~$95.82, Brent ~$101.44 despite active US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait.
Now turn the page.
May 11–18: Seven Events, Eight Days
The week ahead is the most event-dense stretch since late April’s mega-convergence. The difference: this one is about transitions. Who runs the Fed. What China will do about Iran. Whether Lebanon’s truce survives. And a PDUFA that could reshape early-stage breast cancer treatment.
The Central Event
Everything else is context. The central event is the Fed handover.
Kevin Warsh will almost certainly be confirmed. He called for “regime change” at the Fed during his hearing: shrink the balance sheet faster, give less forward guidance, hold fewer press conferences. He wants a Fed that talks less and acts less predictably. His first FOMC meeting as Chair would be June 16-17.
This matters because the rate path is now set in the Strait of Hormuz, not in the labor market. Thaleia’s framework: oil above $100 keeps core inflation sticky, which keeps the Fed frozen — or forces it to hike. CME FedWatch shows a 52% probability of a rate hike by year-end. Warsh’s approach faces a market that may not give him time for elegant theory.
“Fed independence is largely up to the Fed.”
— Kevin Warsh, prepared remarks for confirmation hearing
Powell stays on the Board as a Governor. That’s unprecedented since 1948 — a former Chair sitting across the table from his successor. What dissent looks like from the other side of the gavel is an open question. The last FOMC vote was 8-4 with three hawkish dissenters — the most fractured Fed since the Volcker era.
Still on the Calendar
| Date | Event | Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| May 29 | Afrezza pediatric sBLA PDUFA | MNKD |
| May 31 | CTx-1301 PDUFA (ADHD) | CNTX |
| Jun 18 | Tebipenem NDA PDUFA (first oral carbapenem) | SPRO |
| Jul 6 | Orca-T BLA (extended from Apr 6) | — |
| Jul 7 | Enhertu post-neoadjuvant sBLA PDUFA | AZN / DSNKY |
| Jul 23 | Sarclisa SC sBLA (delayed from Apr 23) | SNY |
| Aug 24 | Leqembi IQLIK SC starting dose sBLA | BIIB / Eisai |
The Background Clock
Iran’s onshore oil storage is approaching capacity. Nerida estimates 3-4 weeks before forced well shut-ins — with potential permanent reservoir damage. The PGSA (Persian Gulf Strait Authority) has been operational since May 5, demanding transit declarations no shipping company has complied with. The CIA assesses Iran can endure the blockade for another four months.
That clock is ticking underneath every other event this week. A breakthrough in Beijing changes it. A Lebanon collapse accelerates it. A Warsh confirmation reshapes the monetary response to it.
Seven catalysts. One week. The handover begins Sunday.