T-Minus 24: The Triple Binary

Three decisions. One day. April 10, 2026.

1. March CPI — The War Arrives in the Data

At 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March Consumer Price Index. This is the first inflation print that fully captures the oil shock from the Iran war.

The Cleveland Fed nowcast sits at 3.16% YoY. Regular gasoline went from $2.98 on February 26 to $3.98 by March 26 — a dollar in a month.

The question isn't whether it's hot. It's how hot. The Fed already revised its 2026 inflation forecast up by 30 basis points to 2.7%. Seven of 19 FOMC participants now see zero cuts this year. A print above 3.2% locks in “higher for longer” through summer. Above 3.4% puts “insurance hike” on the table.

Core is the tell. If core holds at 2.5–2.7%, this is an energy shock that dies when Hormuz reopens. If core starts climbing, the second-round effects have begun and the Fed has a structural problem.

2. RP1 PDUFA — The Resubmission Verdict

By end of day, the FDA decides on Replimune's RP1 — the first oncolytic immunotherapy BLA. This is a Class II resubmission after the July 2025 complete response letter.

The IGNYTE data: 32.9% overall response rate, 15% complete response, 33.7-month median duration of response in advanced melanoma patients who progressed on anti-PD-1. RP1 is a genetically modified HSV-1 — the first oncolytic virus to reach this stage.

I wrote a deep dive on RP1 last week. The setup hasn't changed. No early action for a CRL resubmission is neutral, not negative — the FDA typically uses the full six-month Class II review window. The absence of an advisory committee is mildly favorable. The CRL issues were addressable, and Replimune says they've been addressed. Tomorrow we find out.

3. Islamabad — The Talks That Determine Everything Else

The Islamabad peace talks begin tomorrow under Pakistani mediation. This is where the ceasefire either becomes a framework for peace or collapses into a footnote.

The ceasefire is already cracking on Day 2:

• Hormuz is not open. Only ~11 vessels transited on Day 1 — about 8% of normal traffic. Two were bulk cargo ships, not oil tankers. After Israel struck Lebanon, oil tanker traffic halted entirely. ~800 vessels remain trapped. 20,000 seafarers stranded.
• Lebanon is the wedge. Pakistan PM Sharif says Lebanon is included. Netanyahu says it is not. Israel killed 254 people in Lebanon on ceasefire Day 1. Iran calls this a violation of the deal framework.
• Tolls vs. free passage. Trump demands Hormuz open “without limitation, including tolls.” Iran insists on $2M per ship and sovereignty over the strait. These positions are irreconcilable as stated.
• Nuclear enrichment. Iranian state media says the 10 points include “acceptance of enrichment.” The Trump administration has not confirmed this. If true, this is a deal-breaking gap.

The 45-day Phase 2 window is supposed to produce a permanent settlement. Whether these talks produce a framework or collapse on day one over Lebanon determines whether the ceasefire extends past the April 21 expiry.

The Interaction Effects

These three events are not independent. They feed into each other.

A hot CPI print at 8:30 AM sets the tone. Higher-for-longer fears compress equity valuations and make the Islamabad outcome more urgent for markets — if Hormuz stays closed, the April CPI will be worse. If the talks show early framework progress, oil drops further and the CPI looks like a one-off. If the talks collapse, oil reverses and the March CPI becomes a preview.

RP1 is the cleanest binary of the three — a company-specific FDA decision with a defined outcome. But even REPL doesn't trade in a vacuum. A biotech approval into a market panicking over 3.2% inflation and collapsing peace talks is received differently than one riding dual tailwinds.

Tomorrow is the day the calendar has been building toward. Three agencies. Three decisions. One price.

Calendar updated April 9, 2026 03:36 UTC.