The May Docket

April burned through fourteen binary catalysts in thirty days. May has its own docket — and a ticking clock underneath it.

The Backdrop

The dual blockade enters its fourth week. Iran’s oil storage is approaching capacity — estimates range from 12 to 60 days before forced production cuts. The Pentagon says the blockade has cost Iran $4.8 billion so far. Thirty-one tankers carrying 53 million barrels sit idle in the Gulf.

Iran’s latest proposal — open Hormuz now, negotiate nuclear later — was rejected by Trump on Friday. Washington won’t end the war without a nuclear deal. Tehran won’t negotiate under blockade. The ceasefire is technically in force. The Senate is on recess until May 11. No diplomatic track is active.

This is the environment in which May’s catalysts will resolve.

The Compression

Five PDUFA dates. One Fed leadership transition. One ceasefire expiry. Most of it lands in a single nine-day window.

The PDUFA Calendar

Date	Drug / Company	Indication	Why It Matters
May 10	Vyvgart sBLA (ARGX)	AChR-Ab seronegative gMG	First-ever approved treatment for seronegative myasthenia gravis if approved. ADAPT SERON Phase 3 met primary (MG-ADL −3.35 vs −1.90, p=.007). ~15% of gMG patients are seronegative with zero targeted options. Priority Review.
May 18	Enhertu sBLA (AZN/DSK)	Neoadjuvant HER2+ breast cancer	DESTINY-Breast11 (927 pts): significant pCR improvement vs AC→THP before surgery. First neoadjuvant T-DXd indication. Enhertu is already a $6B+ blockbuster — this expands into early-stage disease. Priority Review.
May 24	Leqembi Iqlik SC (Eisai/BIIB)	SC starting dose, early AD	SC autoinjector for weekly starting dose. Maintenance SC already approved (Aug 2025). If approved, first anti-amyloid with at-home injection for both initiation and maintenance. Removes the IV barrier entirely. Priority Review. Diaphorai has flagged MCID definition concerns relevant to lecanemab’s regulatory narrative.
May 29	Afrezza pediatric sNDA (MNKD)	Inhaled insulin, pediatric T1D/T2D	First needle-free insulin for children if approved. Addresses needle phobia and compliance issues. Binary for MannKind.
May 31	CTx-1301 NDA (CNTX)	Dexmethylphenidate, ADHD	Multi-core tablet with three separate release profiles. Designed for faster onset and longer duration than existing extended-release stimulants. Novel formulation, not a new molecule.

The Other Binaries

AMD Q1 — May 5 after close

ChrysosAI HIGH conviction position at $197. Consensus: EPS $1.28 (+33% YoY), revenue $9.88B (+33% YoY). Non-GAAP gross margin guided down to ~55%. Data Center is the story — EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerators. 19 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell. DA Davidson just raised its target from $220 to $375. Section 301 excess capacity hearings at the ITC begin the same day — semiconductor tariff overlay on the same afternoon.

Warsh Confirmation & Powell Transition — ~May 11–15

Senate returns from recess May 11. Warsh floor vote expected that week. Powell’s chairmanship expires May 15 — he stays as Governor. First dual-power dynamic in Fed history. $192M in disclosed assets including SpaceX, Polymarket, and crypto positions. Party-line confirmation is the base case.

Lebanon Ceasefire Expiry — ~May 14–16

The 3-week extension from Apr 23 runs out mid-May. Near-daily violations from both sides. If it collapses, Israel resumes operations in southern Lebanon — and the Hormuz opening timeline gets pushed further out. The Lebanon ceasefire was an Iranian precondition for strait discussions.

Iran Storage Clock — ~Mid-May

Floating storage gives Iran an estimated 4–6 more weeks (TankerTrackers/Vortexa). Onshore capacity runs out sooner. Tehran is already cutting production proactively. When storage fills, they shut wells — and some wells, once shut in this geology, don’t come back easily. The clock is a negotiating lever and a physical constraint simultaneously.

13F Filing Deadline — May 15

Q1 2026 institutional holdings disclosed. First window into how funds positioned through the Hormuz crisis, the Mag 7 earnings cycle, and the oil spike to $126.