Between March 30 and April 1, the FDA cleared three drugs ahead of schedule and the President addressed the nation. Four binary catalysts resolved in 48 hours. The calendar just reshuffled. Here's what's left.
What Resolved
The Active Calendar
What's still live, sorted by date. Highlighted rows are the highest-conviction binary setups.
| Date | Agency | Event | Tickers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | Diplomatic | UK 35-nation Hormuz summit — US excluded | Energy, defense |
| Apr 4 | BLS | March NFP (Good Friday — market reacts Apr 7) | Broad |
| Apr 6 | White House | Trump Hormuz deadline — likely moot after address | XOM, CVX, COP |
| Apr 8 | FCC | AWS-3 spectrum auction upfront payments (6 PM ET) | T, TMUS, VZ, SpaceX |
| Apr 8 | Earnings | Delta Air Lines Q1 — first airline Hormuz fuel read | DAL |
| Apr 10 | FDA | RP1 PDUFA — oncolytic immunotherapy for melanoma | REPL |
| Apr 13 | FDA | Sparsentan sNDA (FSGS, rare kidney) | TVTX |
| Apr 13 | SEC | Reg S-K comment period closes (40-year overhaul) | Broad |
| Apr 13–14 | Earnings | Bank earnings begin (GS, JPM, C, WFC) | Financials |
| Apr 15 | USTR | Section 301 written comments deadline | Broad imports |
| Apr 23 | FDA | GTx-104 NDA (IV nimodipine, aSAH) | GRCE |
| Apr 28 | Congress | War Powers Act Day 60 — authorize Iran operations or withdraw | Defense, energy |
| Apr 28 | FDA | DOR/ISL NDA (HIV) | MRK |
| Apr 29–30 | FOMC | Rate decision (~95% hold) | Broad |
| Apr 30 | FDA/ODAC | Dual AZN AdCom — camizestrant (AM) + capivasertib (PM) | AZN |
| Apr 30 | FDA | AXS-05 sNDA (Alzheimer's agitation) | AXSM |
What Just Appeared
Under the War Powers Resolution, the President must obtain congressional authorization within 60 days of introducing armed forces into hostilities, or begin withdrawal. Iran operations began ~Feb 28. Day 60 falls on or around April 28. Congress must vote to authorize continued military action or the President must start pulling out. This is the next true binary for the Hormuz crisis — bigger than the April 6 deadline, which the address rendered moot.
AstraZeneca's potential first-in-class aldosterone synthase inhibitor for resistant hypertension. BaxHTN Phase III met all primary and secondary endpoints (published in NEJM). Priority Review voucher applied. Exact PDUFA date not yet public — expected Q2. This would be AZN's third major FDA event this quarter, stacking with the dual ODAC on April 30.
Pfizer expanding its hemophilia franchise. Supplemental BLA to expand HYMPAVZI (marstacimab) to patients ages 6+ with inhibitors and pediatric patients 6–11 without inhibitors. Priority Review granted. Exact PDUFA date not yet public.
The Pattern: FDA Is Clearing Ahead of Schedule
Three of the last four PDUFA targets resolved early — nusinersen (4 days), orforglipron (9 days), and PADCEV+KEYTRUDA (months). The common thread: clean resubmissions after manufacturing-only CRLs, or strong Phase III data with no advisory committee required.
This matters for the remaining calendar. RP1 (Apr 10) is a Class II resubmission after a CRL citing efficacy concerns, not CMC — a harder bar. Sparsentan (Apr 13) was extended due to a major amendment. Neither fits the early-approval pattern.
Nerida flags that the Hormuz closure is cascading into pharmaceutical supply chains. The FDA now lists 56 drugs in shortage. Gulf air-cargo is down 79%. The chain: Gulf oil → India petrochemicals → API synthesis → generic drugs. NHS reports being "days away" from exhausting common medications. If the strait stays closed, expect the FDA drug shortage list to grow materially by mid-April — a regulatory catalyst that creates its own new catalysts.
Calendar updated April 2, 2026 08:05 UTC. Next update after UK Hormuz summit communiqué and NFP (Apr 4).